Hey Sixers, to cover

HEY JIM is short and sweet tonight, 76ers to cover by 3 against the Bobcats.

Alicia loves to use middling.

Middling

This afternoon’s tip is about a betting technique I call middling. There are different definitions of middling, one has to deal with creating a near risk free situation. Example: One sports book has the o/u at 42 and one has it at 39. You could take the under and the over respectively. The worst you could use is the vig on one bet with the possibility of winning both bets. It is a 20-1 payout based on a 5% risk. (Bet $100 on each, worst case is losing $10 total.) However, I’m going to talk to you about another type of bet that isn’t risk free but provides a different opportunity to win a combined bet.

Let us use an example from this past week. IND/SD with San Diego as a 3 point favorite and the over under at 49.5. Many sports books have 7, 10, and even 13 point teasers. You could tease Indianapolis, San Diego, the over, and the under. If you were getting 13 points you would now be sitting with Colts +16, San Diego +10, Over 36.5, and Under 62.5. Last night this would have been a winner. All you’re rooting for here is an average scoring game with a close out come. You don’t really care who wins, as long as the margin of victory is less than 10 points. You could do this across a bunch of teams and not consider the over/under if you’re just expecting close games. Your best opportunities to do this are when the spread is tight (Even to 3 points). Now you can root for both teams and win!. Generally you’ll be +300,+200, -120 for a 7, 10, or 13 point teaser across 4 bets. I will be employing this strategy for tonight’s game (GB +14, NO +12, Over 39, Under 65). Good luck!

HEY JIM likes Portland

Ok, HEY JIM is picking Portland +4.5 a Sacramento. At this rate, wager everything you own on Sacramento to cover. (Honestly, I personally think it’s a good pick put HEY JIM makes it the touch of death.) Good luck all…

Just FYI, HEY JIM is currently 2-5, only producing a winning pick on 1 of 5 days. Caveat Emptor.

Desperados Dancers love matrices

Have a Price Matrix

Alright, so this tip is probably a bit more for the advanced trader but is definitely a must in my eyes if you’re looking to trade often and realize big gains. If you’re just interested in having some fun and throwing some money around this tip probably isn’t for you.

You want to have a price/probability matrix. Set up a spread sheet that lists the probability of each team to make it to the playoffs. Now you may ask, how do I get these probabilities? Well you can create your own by doing your own studies or you can find one of many different rating systems that different websites have. Either way, once you have probabilites that you’re comfortable with you list them along side their respective team in the spreadsheet.

Next, you want to create a matrix of matchups. Basically, have one conference going across a bunch of columns and the other conference going down row by row. Each cell that matches up (like an old school multiplication table) should have the value of the probabilty of match. You get this probability by multiplying the probability of a team from one conference by the probability of a team from the other conference making it.

Now that you have the probabilities of each matchup you can use your expected ticket prices to determine what the current price should be. This is great way to keep track of price movements as well as detect undervalued/overcalued contracts. If you have any more questions on how to create one of these feel free to comment. Good Luck!

P.S. – 1-0 After picking Pittsburgh to cover last night.

Titans vs. Buccaneers = Long Term Value

Titans have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, Bucs play against the worst team in football while Atlanta and Carolina battle it out this weekend. Tampa Bay currently has a probability of making the playoffs of 79%. The probability of this match-up making the playoffs is approximately 78%. I also have the probability of this Super Bowl occurring at 6.72%. At this price, you gotta buy.

NFL.SB09.TEN-TB.D

Current Price: $78.69

Pegged: $149.00

L.T.I. Recap

Last Friday I gave you another Long Term Investment for Super Bowl 2009. Let’s recap to see where you would be had you bought. The contract was NFL.SB09.NYJ-CAR.D.

Price at time of post: $19.04

Pegged Price at time of post: $43.00

Current Price: $30.02

Current Pegged Price: $53.00

So using the current price for this contract, had you bought last Friday when I posted you would be up 57.66%. This contract isn’t as hot as the NFL.SB09.TEN-ARI.D contract but it is still a decent pickup at this price. Let’s look at how that contract is performing over the last 2 weeks.

Price at time of post: $60.48

Pegged Price at time of post: $115.00

Current Price: $150.99

Current Pegged Price: $167.00

Last week I gave an update on this contract and you were up about 38% if you got in early. You would now be up 149%. Stick with JB my friends…

Detroit is hot, Hey Jim isn't

I disappointed you guys with the Bulls last night +7. They got killed by the Blazers 116-74. Ouch.

Tonight I’m sticking with the NBA. I started with 50 bucks and 4 days of betting still has me there after splitting my games.

Detroit Pistons +7 at the Boston Garden tonight.

When they lost to the Celtics last week, they did not have Rodney Stuckey. Tonight, they will and they are now starting to play better with A.I.

Life as a handicapper

November 20th

+11 Cincinnati/Pittsburgh -11

I hate to take big favorites. Don’t bet unless you have a teaser on this one. Pitt 24-10.

November 23rd

+3 Houston/Cleveland -3

Quinn eats up the Houston secondary in his first big game. Browns 28-24.

-3 Buffalo/Kansas City +3

I like Buffalo to cover and KC in a tease. Bills 21-17.

+5.5 New York Jets/Tennessee -5.5

This is tough too. I’m taking Tennesse though. Titans 28-21.

+1 New England/Miami -1

You know I’m a huge Phins fan. All numbers point to Miami here. Dolphins 23-20.

+10.5 San Francisco/Dallas -10.5

San Francisco covers. That young QB can get fired up. Dallas 27-17.

-8.5 Tampa Bay/Detroit +8.5

I like Detroit but they won’t cover. Bucs 27-17.

+1 Philadelphia/Baltimore -1

Blowout. Ravens 31-10.

-8.5 Chicago/St. Louis +8.5

Chicago here. Love them in a teaser. Bears 20-10.

+2.5 Minnesota/Jacsonville -2.5

I’m liking Jacksonville in a teaser. Jags 24-21.

+1 Carolina/Atlanta -1

Carolina makes it a push, take the teaser. 24-23 Atlanta.

+10 Oakland/Denver -10

They can’t make it easy. Oakland to cover, Denver in a teaser. Denver 20-13.

-3.5 Washington/Seattle +3.5

Washington gets back in gear this week. 27-13.

-3.5 New York Giants/Arizona +3.5

This is probably supposed to be a trap. Giants match-up well. NYG 21-17.

+3 Indianapolis/San Diego -3

Indianapolis should win easy, throw them in a teaser. Colts 24-17.

November 24th

+2.5 Green Bay/New Orleans -2.5

New Orleans covers by a little. Saints 24-20.

Jazz said get out of my house, son

Had three crazy picks last night. One hit, and if you bet evenly across you’re now up. The Vancouver/New York game was the exact opposite of what everyone expected with 9 total goals scored. Although Ball St. won our receiver caught 8 passes to go one over. But the big win of the night came on the Utah Jazz winning by 11. If you bet 10 dollars on each of the picks I made you would have invested $30. You would now have $50. That’s a solid 66% ROI. You’re welcome.

On another note, HEY JIM is back to his ways after going 0-2. I’m not sure what to do about him. Suggestions? Maybe he’ll just be a novelty. Later today you’ll get the coveted Locks of the Week. Stay Tuned.

Running of the Bulls tonight

The Chicago Bulls cover tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers in a high-scoring fiasco.

Bulls +7

Over 194.5

Let’s make it 2 days in a row.

Moving on. For the first Prop bet of the day I like a hockey pick:

Vancouver vs. New York – No Goals in First Period – Odds 13/5

This game will display the current top two goalies in the NHL. Lundquist hasn’t let up more than 2 goals in a game this season. Forgetting skill and just using probability, assuming he allows up to 2 goals tonight the odds of both of them occuring in the 2nd and/or 3rd period are 60%. Luongo was weaker early on but has not allowed more than 2 goals in his last 5 games (allowed 2 in one of them only). Basically what I’m saying is that I would expect the odds of this bet to be around 2-1 but we’re getting 2.6-1.

Utah Jazz to Win by 10-13 Points – Odds 4/1

Jazz play the Timberwolves tonight. They should win, this seems to me like a good margin of victory.

Unfortunately my good friends over at TradeSports have decided to shut down their exchange. That’s too bad, I was doing well over there. Maybe all those traders will start to populate the yoonew exchange. Sadly enough, this means there will be no TradeSports pick of the week. So I introduce to you the “random pick an obscure college football player prop bet” pick of the week.

Antonio Brown – Under 7 Receptions  -125

Ball St. will just play too tough a D for him to get over his 6.7 avg.

Amazing Video of the Week